Instrument Rating Checkride Practice Test

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What does 'PROB' in a TAF report indicate?

  1. The type of weather phenomenon expected

  2. The altitude of the expected weather events

  3. The probability of the weather forecasted to occur

  4. The duration of the severe weather event

The correct answer is: The probability of the weather forecasted to occur

In a TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) report, 'PROB' indicates the probability of certain weather conditions occurring during the forecast period. This is crucial for pilots, as it provides a quantitative assessment of the likelihood that specific weather phenomena will happen, helping them make informed decisions regarding flight operations. For example, if a TAF indicates a 'PROB 40' of thunderstorms, this suggests that there is a 40% chance these thunderstorms will occur at the specified time. Understanding this probability helps pilots assess risk and adjust flight plans accordingly. The other options focus on aspects such as the type of weather, altitude of events, or duration of severe weather, which do not relate to the specific function of the 'PROB' term in the context of a TAF report.

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